TAG, known for its spot-on analysis of the retail field for fashion and home, now says the 2025 calendar year will end up increasing 0.7 percent, slower than both the 1.4 percent growth recorded in 2023 and the 1.7 percent growth recorded in 2024.
Going forward, “We continue to expect the biggest YoY increase in off-price, up 3.7 percent YoY, followed by discounters, up 2.4 percent, and beauty, up 1.7 percent. Compared to previous forecasts, TAG said it expects declines in six sectors (unchanged), led by luxury and sporting goods. “Compared with our last report, we left estimates for four sectors relatively unchanged (specialty retail, off-price, sporting goods and home), reduced our forecast for net new store growth for five of the twelve sectors in our analysis (luxury, footwear, department stores, discounters and hardlines), and increased estimates for three sectors (beauty, apparel and supermarkets).
“In 2026, we look for store opening growth to accelerate up 1.4 percent excluding restaurants, led by off-price, beauty and discounters. We expect luxury, department stores and sporting goods will remain net closers, though the rate of closing should improve sequentially for all three sectors.”