The numbers are still coming in and adjustments are likely as retailers continue to tally up their business in the post-Thanksgiving period but the early read is that shoppers were out in slightly larger numbers and with slightly bigger wallets than some of the experts had predicted. And while the Black Friday weekend is not always a reliable predictor of what the rest of the holiday shopping season looks like, there are some signs worth noting:
Simon Properties, which owns some of the best shopping centers and outlet malls in the country, reported a 6.4 percent increase in traffic in their properties, exceeding forecasts and reaffirming that in-person shopping is still something many Americans love to do, especially at the best malls.
- As strong as these numbers were – and they weren’t reflected in across-the-board in-store results it should be noted – e-commerce was the real star of the shopping weekend. Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures U.S. retail sales across their payments network combined with estimates for cash and check payments, said online sales were up 14.6 percent, a pretty substantial number. Other tracking services pegged the online increase at a smaller gain but just about everybody agreed it outpaced in-store results.
- The National Retail Federation, representing most larger American retail chains, said it expects that between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, consumers will spend between $979 billion and $989 billion—a 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent increase over 2023. Black Friday weekend spending and traffic exceeded its original forecast.
- Perhaps most importantly and what clearly signals the shopping pattern for the rest of the season is that most shoppers – no matter what they were shopping for – wanted one thing: a deal. With promotional activity already at a frenzied level this year consumers weren’t pulling the buying trigger unless the price was a real bargain. Some of that was the elusive “value” equation that retailers love to talk about but more so, it was “gimme a deal or I’m not buying.”
That’s the ominous sign hanging over retailers through Christmas and into the post-Christmas shopping week. With the holiday falling mid-week, the weekend following Christmas and even the week surrounding New Years are likely to be even more promotional as consumers head to stores and websites. They don’t seem to be hesitant to buy – they have the money, inflation is down and they are generally feeling good about things now that the election has been decided – but it has to be a deal.