Going into the 2023 Christmas shopping season, the forecasters and prognosticators were predicting dismal results, maybe up a little bit but certainly nothing to bring holiday cheer to retailers and suppliers alike.
So, reports coming out early in the new year are turning out to be the best Christmas present the industry could get as consumers hit the stores and websites at a brisk rate, outpacing inflation by a few ticks and surprising all.
The final government statistics are still to come but the post-Christmas report from Mastercard gives a pretty good read on how it all went. The credit card company’s SpendingPulse survey said that overall retail sales from Nov. 1 through the day before Christmas were up 3.1% over 2022. Results from the week between Christmas and New Years – a period becoming increasingly important for business – were not included but are likely to fall into a similar pattern.
With inflation rates down significantly from earlier in 2023 it’s likely these results will just be up slightly over that rate, defying many forecasts that said business would be lower.
“This holiday season, the consumer showed up, spending in a deliberate manner,” Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, said. “The economic backdrop remains favorable with healthy job creation and easing inflation pressures, empowering consumers to seek the goods and experiences they value most.”
Mastercard said that online performance was much better than in-store, up 6.3% versus 2.2%, although shopping in physical stores is still the largest part of the shopping pie.
Apparel was one of the best-performing category for the season, up 2.2% across the board. Only jewelry and consumer electronics showed slight declines. One of the biggest winners was the restaurant business, up 7.8%.