It’s looking increasingly likely that the fall 2025 back-to-school season is shaping up to be very different than the past few years. Blame it on tariffs and the uncertainties faced by suppliers and retailers on importing goods from China and elsewhere in Asia. The resulting fallout could cause severe changes in consumer demand as well as their spending patterns if they are worried about the overall economy.
Inmar Intelligence's "2025 Back-to-School Shopping Forecast Report," found that 31 percent of parents are prepared to take on debt in order to pay for back-to-school shopping, including apparel, school supplies, food items and more. The data research company said this kind of shopping environment will make incentives, loyalty programs, and private label more important than ever.
Inmar’s three predictions for back-to-school shopping are.
1: Price-Sensitive Parents Will Challenge Brands to Deliver Value: When shopping for back-to-school, consumers will cut costs where they can but will still splurge where quality matters. A whopping 94 percent of consumers will prioritize low prices for school supplies, while 36 percent will do so for personal care and hygiene items. However, 45 percent of the survey group said they will pay more for high-quality products in the health and wellness, clothing, and shoes categories, as well as for food and groceries categories.
2: Back-to-School Health a Priority: Half of parents say health is a bigger concern than in previous years, and 88 percent say that concern will affect their purchase decisions. About half of parents say they’d choose healthiness over affordability if forced to prioritize, while 40 percent would consider trying a new brand if it offered better benefits for their child’s health.
3: Purchase Decisions Will Start on Social: 70 percent of consumers say their decisions will be influenced by social and creator content. Even more, 79 percent of parents say their children have moderate to strong influence over what back-to-school products they buy, especially when it comes to clothing and shoes, food and grocery items, and general school supplies.
“Back-to-school sparks unique shifts in consumer behaviors,” said Inmar. “As routines return, what shoppers prioritize now – from savings and convenience to brand trust – will shape spending through the rest of the year.”
The study was conducted in April earlier this year as part of the Inmar Intelligence Spring Season Survey of 1,000 Americans.