The deadline for renewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement — the successor to the better-known NAFTA — is July 1, but Bloomberg News reports that those close to the situation say there is not likely to be a new deal done by then.
The three countries are believed to do more than $2 trillion in trade with each other.
The news service says the current agreement is supposed to remain in place until at least 2036, but if it’s not renewed on schedule, it could mean annual reviews as well as separate talks between the individual nations.
The U.S. appears to be the one that is holding up the renewal, the news agency said, looking for better terms for trade with its northern and southern neighbors. It has already initiated bilateral talks with them over trade issues, and Bloomberg said individual side deals could be agreed to, circumventing the broader USMCA treaty, which was signed by the President Trump during his first term when it replaced NAFTA.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg the U.S. wouldn’t “rubber-stamp” an extension of the agreement, while Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian minister responsible for U.S. trade, met with Greer this week in Washington. Afterward, he suggested July 1 shouldn’t be seen as a crucial date. “I think we’ve got to be careful not to set up a cliff that doesn’t exist,” he said.
Bloomberg said the office of the USTR declined to comment and instead referred to recent remarks by Greer, who told a French news service, “I don’t think we’re going to renew it outright, but we’ll engage in the separate negotiations.”
The Kearney 2026 Reshoring Index, just released, shows that roughly $300 billion in goods brought into the U.S. were sourced from a different country than previously. The report called it a “shock to the system.”
Patrick Van den Bossche, the report’s lead author and partner at Kearney’s Strategic Operations Practice, called the shift “staggering,” something he said he hasn’t seen in the report’s 13-year history.
“If anything, the immediate impact of the tariffs was a gigantic re-stacking of the cards, except the U.S. card wasn’t quite pulled just yet,” he said.
As would be expected China was the biggest loser in this new tariff era, with direct imports falling by almost one-third, accounting for $135 billion in sales gone. Thirteen other Asian countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand, gained a cumulative $194 billion in imports.
Another winner was Mexico, where exports to the U.S. were up 8 percent from 2024 to 2025, while Europe also gained, producing $62 billion in goods sent to the U.S.
The report did not say how much production returned to the U.S. but given the shifts in global sourcing it appears the reshoring results were minimal at best.